Koontz's Market Outlook: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

February 4, 2026

GREELEY, CO., – Dr. Stephen Koontz, professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Colorado State University spoke last week at the Colorado Farm Show and offered his assessment of the cattle and beef markets and long-term market considerations for producers. His outlook talk title was the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

The good was, of course, cattle prices that he said he expects to remain high through at least the coming year.

"Herd building increases beef supplies a couple of years from now, and tightens beef supplies the coming year so I think the cattle and beef outlook for the coming year or two years is exceptional and will stay that way,” Koontz said. “The cattle market is also one of the markets that is most insulated from trade and not going to be impacted as much by trade news.”

In terms of trade, he said the U.S. is currently importing beef for ground and exporting very little because the price is currently so high. The trade insulation, he said, is good news and indicates a strong calf market for the coming years.

Corn and forage fall under the bad news.

Corn supplies, he said, are enormous and forage supplies are greatly expanded leaving prices low.

“If we have another gigantic corn crop, we’ll have very low corn prices but the demand has picked up so we have good corn prices right now and I see into this year,” Koontz said. “But, you’ve got to watch out for acres.”

The forage supply is bountiful, but dry weather could drive prices higher.

Dairy, he said falls somewhere between bad and ugly with large herd size increases. He said with high milk production, producers need strong dairy product exports to continue.

“Beef on dairy has been very successful, very profitable, but you still have to milk that cow for 9 or 10 months,” he said.

Koontz said the world wheat supplies are enormous with many countries reporting excellent crops.

“I’m not bearish wheat,” he said. “I think wheat is at really low prices, but I’m not very optimistic that this market will pull out of the doldrums that it’s in. It’s in tough shape.”

Source: Western Ag Network