Herd Rebuilding: Choosing a Heifer Calf or Bred Heifer Matters
July 7, 2026 – About 75% of the nation’s cowherd is located in areas experiencing drought conditions and that is significant, according to one economist, when the nation is also attempting to build herd numbers back up from the lowest in generations. Retaining heifers, he said, may not be the best strategy.
Dave Weaber, senior protein analyst at Terrain Ag said the price signals are present but, unfortunately and as no surprise to so many, so are exceptional drought conditions.
“If we had grass, herds would be growing,” Weaber said at the recent annual Colorado Cattlemen’s Association meeting. “Grass is the thing holding us back. When we look at what’s going on from a price standpoint, where we are in the cycle, we have another 2 or 3 years of higher calf prices, or at least high calf prices.”
Weaber said the average producer is making about $1,000 per head which would typically tempt producers back into full herd rebuild mode, but the lack of grass is halting that. He said the current forecast indicates a change in moisture patterns in fall and into winter. Hopefully, he said, it’ll come early enough that some producers will take the chance and retain heifers.
For those considering retention, he said there is an advantage to purchasing a heifer bred this summer rather than keeping a heifer calf.
“There’s some of those starting to move,” he said. “Western Colorado is in dry enough conditions, guys who bred heifers late spring and early this summer, in two to three weeks from now, might have heifers on the market. Advantage to them? Prevent a further escalation of heifer prices when that growth does start, and you get a calf a year sooner.”
Weaber said producers interested in riding the wave of high prices with the intention of unloading females before prices decrease may want to choose a 4- to 7-year-old cow that has enough youthfulness to produce through the peak prices.
“She’s still going to cost $4 to 5,000, but you know she’s a solid producer and there’s some opportunity there to capture high cull cow values which an average cow is still bringing $2,500 going to slaughter. There’s still enough ground beef demand that there’s what I call trade-in value. They’re still high and they will be on those cows.”
Weaber said a heifer calf retained this fall will ride the price cycle to the bottom. Protecting dollars through LRP or an options strategy is going to be key, and it makes knowing your break-even numbers more important.
Source: Western Ag Network
