Crop Progress Report for Oct. 8, 2023
October 11, 2023
Despite being slightly behind average in some Eastern Corn Belt states such as Indiana and Ohio, this year's corn and soybean harvests continued to outpace the five-year averages nationally last week, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report on Tuesday. The report, which is normally released on Mondays, was delayed this week due to the holiday.
-- Crop progress: NASS estimated that 89% of corn was mature as of Sunday, Oct. 8, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the five-year average of 85%.
-- Harvest progress: Corn harvest moved ahead 11 percentage points last week to reach 34% complete as of Sunday. That is 5 percentage points ahead of 29% last year and 3 percentage points ahead of 31% for the five-year average. "Eastern states of Indiana and Ohio are below their usual paces, but the rest of the Corn Belt is mostly near or above its five-year averages for this time of year," said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.
-- Crop condition: NASS said 53% of corn was rated good to excellent, unchanged for the second week in a row. The current rating is slightly below last year's rating of 54% and is the lowest good-to-excellent rating for the crop for this time of year since 2012, Hultman said.
-- Crop progress: 93% of the crop was dropping leaves, 3 percentage points ahead of last year's 90% and 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 87%.
-- Harvest progress: Soybean harvest jumped 20 percentage points last week to reach 43% complete as of Sunday. That is 2 points ahead of last year's 41% and 6 points ahead of the five-year average of 37%. "Mississippi is the furthest ahead, at 82% harvested, and is followed by Arkansas at 60% harvested," Hultman noted.
-- Crop condition: USDA said 51% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down 1 point from 52% the previous week and below 57% a year ago. It is the lowest good-to-excellent rating since 2012, according to Hultman.
-- Planting progress: Winter wheat planting advanced 17 percentage points last week to reach 57% complete as of Sunday. That is 4 points ahead of last year's 53% but is now equal to the five-year average.
-- Crop progress: 29% of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, 5 points ahead of last year's 24% but 1 point behind the five-year average of 30%.
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
A strong storm system that is expected to move through the Plains on Wednesday and Thursday and the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday could slow or halt harvest progress in those areas, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.
"We saw some frosts across a wide area of the Northern and Central Plains and parts of the Midwest since last Friday, and frosts should be a little more common now that we're getting deeper into October," Baranick said. "That will especially be true behind a strong fall storm system that is going to move through the country this week. It is building out in the west here on Tuesday but will quickly develop in the Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, then move east through the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday.
"The rapid strengthening of the storm will create a zone of heavy rain from Wyoming through the Great Lakes. That will likely cause some flooding damage in spots as well as delay harvest significantly. Strong winds from the storm could create some damage, and we may even see some snow accumulating in parts of Wyoming, western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota. Severe weather looks like a good bet as well.
"The southwestern Plains does not look like it'll get much precipitation out of it, just the wind, which may cause its own concerns. And the lack of rainfall, while not critical for winter wheat establishment just yet, isn't necessarily favorable. Colder temperatures behind the system could lead to frosts next weekend in the Plains as far south as the Texas Panhandle and next week south of the Ohio River once the air settles down a bit and skies clear."