Is the Cattle Market Bulletproof?

June 22, 2025

As cattle prices climb to record highs, ranchers are weighing whether now is the time to rebuild—or wait. On the latest episode of the LaneCast Ag Podcast, ag economist Dr. Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University joins the show to break down the key market forces shaping the U.S. cattle industry in 2025.

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Rebuilding the Herd: A Measured Start

Despite strong prices, herd expansion remains cautious and uneven. “We’re essentially starting from scratch,” Peel explains, noting a lack of retained heifers and lingering drought concerns. While regions like the Southern Plains are seeing improvement, many producers are holding off until conditions stabilize.

Cattle on Feed: Numbers Don’t Lie

The June USDA Cattle on Feed report confirmed tighter supplies: 11.4 million head on feed, down 1% from last year. May placements were 8% lower, and marketings dropped 10%. Feedlots have extended days on feed and leaned on heifer inventories, but that strategy has its limits. “The tank is running low,” Peel says.

Outlook: Bulletproof, Not Bombproof

Even with global uncertainties, Peel remains optimistic. “The cattle market is bulletproof right now—not bombproof—but the fundamentals are strong,” he says. While price dips may come, overall supply and demand dynamics favor a firm market through the end of the decade. Still, Peel urges producers to manage short-term risk and capitalize on strong local marketing windows.

Trade: Why Imports and Exports Matter

Peel also addressed a long-standing question among ranchers—why does the U.S. import beef when we also export it? “Beef isn’t one product,” he explains. “Exports allow us to sell cuts we don’t favor here, while imports help balance lean trim for the hamburger market.” The result? Greater value across the system.

Beef-on-Dairy: More Visible, Not More Cattle

The growing presence of beef-on-dairy calves isn’t inflating cattle numbers—it’s shifting how the supply looks. Peel emphasizes that dairy calves have always entered the beef chain, but crossbreeding now gives them more market value. “They seem new, but they’ve always been there,” he says.

Bottom Line: Cow-Calf Producers Are in the Driver’s Seat

With feeder supplies tightening and demand holding strong, cow-calf producers hold a rare position of leverage. “Everything starts with the cow-calf sector,” Peel says. “You control the supply—and that means opportunity, if managed wisely.”

🎙️ Listen to the full episode of the LaneCast Ag Podcast for more insights from Dr. Derrell Peel and real-time cattle market analysis.

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Source: LaneCast Ag Podcast