Ag's Global Game: Trade and Trends with Gregg Doud

December 9, 2024

During the 140th Montana Stockgrowers Association Annual Convention, attendees were treated to an impressive lineup of speakers, including former U.S. Trade Representative for Agriculture, Gregg Doud. With a career steeped in agricultural policy and global trade, Doud shared valuable insights on the complexities and opportunities facing the agricultural industry today.

Watch the Video Podcast with Gregg Doud:

Doud recounted his transition from government service to the private sector after serving as the chief agricultural negotiator under the Trump administration. Partnering with military veterans, he co-founded a startup focused on applying war-gaming strategies to the corporate and agricultural sectors. This innovative approach enabled Doud’s team to explore future trends, including potential disruptions like the removal of glyphosate from the market and emerging technologies in agriculture.

“I probably learned more in those three years than I had in the previous thirty,” Doud said, emphasizing the value of forward-thinking analysis in agriculture.

Doud stressed that agriculture extends far beyond local and national boundaries, intertwining with global politics and markets. Using China as an example, he explained how changes in Chinese pork production or shifts in their trade relationships can ripple across global commodity markets. Similarly, renewable jet fuel—a burgeoning industry in Montana—has the potential to significantly impact livestock markets by creating new demand for tallow, a byproduct of beef production.

Despite challenges, Doud remains optimistic about the future of U.S. agriculture. He highlighted the growing global demand for animal protein, which exceeds current supply levels. “The easiest place to expand production is here in the U.S.,” he said, citing the country’s superior technology and resources. However, he also acknowledged hurdles, including drought conditions and regulatory constraints, which are limiting expansion opportunities for cattle producers.

Reflecting on his tenure at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, Doud underscored the importance of trade agreements for U.S. agriculture. He lamented the lack of new agreements under the Biden administration, emphasizing that trade deals often take a decade to fully realize their benefits. “We have to have things in the queue,” he noted, pointing to successful agreements with Canada, Mexico, China, and Japan as examples of impactful trade policies.

Looking ahead to a potential second Trump administration, Doud indicated that tariffs could again become a key tool to ensure fair trade practices. “No one gets access to the best consumer on earth—the U.S. consumer—for free,” he said, advocating for dialogue and collaboration to resolve trade disputes.

Doud’s message to farmers and ranchers was clear: seize the current opportunities in the livestock sector while navigating the challenges in grain markets. He called for industry-wide discussions on how to increase cattle production sustainably, stating, “We can do it better than anybody in the world.”

The Montana Stockgrowers Association Convention provided a valuable platform for industry leaders like Gregg Doud to share their expertise. As the agricultural landscape continues to evolve, events like these play a crucial role in equipping producers with the knowledge and tools needed to succeed in a global market.