USDA Expects More Winter Wheat in 2025
January 10, 2025
On Friday, the USDA released it's Dec. 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings report.
Planted winter wheat area for harvest in 2025 is estimated at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024 but down 7% from 2023. A record-low planted area is expected in Utah. Seeding of the 2025 acreage was underway in early September.
By Oct. 20, producers had sown 73% of the intended 2025 winter wheat acreage, 1 percentage point behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Nationwide, 46% of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by Oct. 20, which was 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Throughout much of the season, planting progressed on pace with the five-year average and reached 97% complete by Nov. 24. Emergence was 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the five-year average pace on Nov. 24.
Hard red winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 24.0 million acres, up 1% from 2024. The largest increases in planted acreage are estimated in Montana and Texas, while Kansas is estimated to have a decrease.
Soft red winter wheat seeded area totals 6.44 million acres, up 6% from last year. Compared with last year, the largest acreage increases are expected in Michigan and Ohio, while the largest acreage decreases are expected in Kentucky and Missouri.
White winter wheat-seeded area totals 3.64 million acres, up 3% from 2024. No states in the region are expecting decreased acreage.
The agency estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 798 million bushels, up from 795 mb in December's report.
Seed demand is pegged at 64 mb, an increase from 62 mb in December. Feed and residual use is estimated at 120 mb, unchanged from December.
Domestic use was estimated at 2.0 billion bushels, up from December's estimate of 1.998 bb. Exports are estimated at 850 mb, unchanged from last month. The farmgate price is estimated at $5.55, down from $5.60 last month.
From the Grain Stocks report, wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 1.57 bb, up 10% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 467 million bushels, up 16% from last December.
Off-farm stocks, at 1.1 bb, are up 8% from a year ago. The quarterly indicated use is 423 mb, 22% above the same period a year earlier.
Globally, ending stocks were pegged at 258.82 million metric tons, an increase from 257.88 mmt in December.
Exports are estimated at 46.0 mmt for Russia, a decrease from 47.0 mmt last month, and 16.0 mmt for Ukraine, slightly down from 16.5 mmt in December.
Production in Australia was estimated at 32.0 mmt, unchanged from December. Production in Argentina was estimated at 17.5 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Source: DTN
